At the SCO Summit 2024 in Islamabad, Dr. S. Jaishankar gave a strong message to the world, criticizing Pakistan at China on the cross border terrorism
The Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO Summit 2024) was held in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital, on the 15th and 16th of October, 2024. Before his visit, Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar emphasized that India, like any neighbouring country, seeks better relations with Pakistan. However, he made it clear that this can only be achieved by addressing the issue of cross-border terrorism.
At the summit, Jaishankar delivered a strong message by criticizing both Pakistan and China without naming them directly. He firmly reprimanded Pakistan for its involvement in cross-border terrorism and explicitly stated that India does not accept the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), raising concerns about sovereignty. This visit marked the first time in nearly a decade that an Indian Foreign Minister travelled to Pakistan.
At the SCO Summit 2024 held in Astana, Kazakhstan, India played a significant role. The External Affairs Minister articulated the Prime Minister's key messages, emphasizing that the fight against terrorism and addressing climate change are top priorities. Since joining the SCO in 2017, India’s participation has been driven by its strategic interests in Central Asia and broader Eurasian geopolitics. However, as the global landscape shifts, there is growing speculation about whether India may lose interest in the SCO. The question arises: Is India pulling away from the SCO in 2024, or is it simply losing its interest?
Overview of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established in 1996, originally known as the "Shanghai Five," which comprised China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The formation of the SCO was a strategic response to address emerging concerns related to radical religious organizations and ethnic conflicts that surfaced following the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. This organization plays a vital role as a regional bloc, aiming to foster collaboration on political, economic, and security issues among its member states.
Over the years, the SCO has expanded significantly and now consists of ten member states. In addition to the founding members, the organization includes India and Pakistan, both of which are among the world's most populous nations. The current members are India, Iran, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and most recently, Belarus, which joined the organization to enhance regional security dynamics and cooperation.
Afghanistan and Mongolia are recognized as Observer States within the SCO, allowing them to participate in discussions and collaborative efforts but without full membership rights. The SCO serves as a crucial platform for its members to address a wide range of issues, including counter-terrorism, trade, economic development, and political stability in the region.
The next SCO Summit is scheduled for 2024, where member states will convene to engage in discussions on pressing global challenges. The summit will prioritize regional security, economic cooperation, and the intricate geopolitical dynamics that influence the stability and prosperity of member nations, showcasing the organization's significance in fostering dialogue and partnership among key players in Eurasia.
India's Role in the SCO: Historical Perspective
India officially became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2017, aiming to expand its influence in Central Asia. This participation was seen as a natural extension of India's "Connect Central Asia" policy, which seeks to strengthen political, economic, and cultural ties with nations in the region.
As a member of the SCO, India intended to utilize the organization's platform to address key security concerns, such as counterterrorism and regional stability. Given its tense relations with neighbouring Pakistan and ongoing border disputes with China, the SCO also served as a forum for engaging with these rivals on a multilateral level. However, India's role within the organization has been limited by its differences with China and Pakistan, which has restricted the depth of cooperation on certain issues.
Shifting Geopolitical Landscape
In recent years, the global geopolitical landscape has undergone significant transformation, largely influenced by the rise of multipolarity and the formation of new strategic alliances. Countries around the world are increasingly seeking to redefine their partnerships in response to emerging global powers, leading to a complex web of interactions. For India, this evolving dynamic has prompted a focused effort to strengthen its relationships with Western democracies, alongside engaging with regional groupings like the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) and various Indo-Pacific partnerships.
India’s foreign policy is in a state of evolution as it navigates the challenges posed by the rising influence of China in the Indo-Pacific region. This shift involves not only strengthening ties with countries such as the United States, Japan, and Australia but also enhancing military and economic cooperation to counterbalance China’s assertiveness. The aim is to establish a more secure and stable regional order that aligns with India’s strategic interests.
At the same time, India is committed to maintaining a careful balance in its relationships within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes Russia and several Central Asian nations. This balancing act is becoming increasingly complex as geopolitical rivalries, particularly between China and the U.S., intensify. While India recognizes the importance of its participation in the SCO for regional stability and cooperation, it may increasingly regard these ties as secondary to its broader strategic partnerships with Western allies and like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific. This nuanced approach reflects India’s desire to assert its role as a regional leader while safeguarding its national interests in a rapidly changing international arena.
Challenges Within the SCO for India
India’s engagement with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is significantly influenced by its complex and often contentious relationships with key member states, notably China and Pakistan. The ongoing border standoff with China, which escalated into violent clashes in Ladakh in 2020, remains a critical barrier to fostering constructive cooperation within the SCO framework. These tensions have not only strained diplomatic relations but have also created an atmosphere of mistrust that hinders collaborative initiatives aimed at regional stability and economic cooperation.
Additionally, India's historical disputes with Pakistan—especially the contentious issue of Kashmir—further complicate its position in the SCO. This long-standing conflict has perpetuated a cycle of hostility that limits India's ability to fully engage with the organization and its objectives. As a consequence, India must carefully navigate these regional tensions, balancing the need to participate in multilateral discussions with its imperative to safeguard national security and territorial integrity.
This intricate landscape means that India’s participation in the SCO is characterized by cautious engagement, where its national interests often take precedence over collective goals. India's diplomatic efforts within the SCO are thus tempered by the requirement to address these underlying conflicts, making it challenging to establish deeper cooperation in areas such as counterterrorism, economic collaboration, and regional security.
India’s Focus on Bilateral Relations
In contrast to its multilateral engagement within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), India has increasingly focused on fortifying its bilateral relationships with key global powers. Over the past few years, India’s partnerships with the United States, Japan, and various European nations have grown significantly, highlighting a notable shift in its diplomatic strategy. This strengthening of ties encompasses a wide array of areas, including trade agreements, defence collaborations, and advancements in technological cooperation.
India's pivot towards these relationships may indicate a broader recalibration of its foreign policy priorities. This shift suggests a potential decline in the emphasis placed on multilateral platforms like the SCO, as India seeks to align its strategic objectives more closely with nations that share similar values and goals. The growing importance of bilateralism in India’s international strategy reflects a more discerning approach to multilateral organizations, prioritizing efforts where its interests align closely with those of like-minded partners.
This trend illustrates India's desire to build robust and strategic alliances that enhance its global standing while also maximizing its national interests in an increasingly multipolar world. As India navigates this landscape, it appears to be selecting its engagements carefully, focusing on meaningful partnerships that could yield tangible benefits both economically and geopolitically.
Domestic Factors Influencing India's Involvement
At home, domestic considerations play a crucial role in delineating India’s foreign policy, influencing how the nation engages with international platforms and organizations. One of the primary economic priorities is the "Make in India" initiative, which aims to substantially enhance domestic manufacturing, foster innovation, and advance technology. This initiative not only seeks to boost the Indian economy by creating jobs and increasing production but also affects India’s dealings with multilateral organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The emphasis on bolstering local industries may lead India to focus more on trade agreements and partnerships that align with its economic objectives rather than placing priority on commitments to the SCO.
Additionally, the political landscape within India is complex and subject to change, especially with upcoming national elections looming on the horizon. This political dynamic can shift the government’s focus away from its international commitments, including those to the SCO. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration is increasingly motivated to demonstrate India’s rising prominence in the global arena. However, the government may find it more effective to pursue this ambition through more influential platforms such as the G20 or BRICS, where India can engage with a broader spectrum of global leaders and tackle pressing international issues. As a result, while India acknowledges its role in the SCO, the interplay of domestic priorities and political considerations may ultimately lead to a more selective approach to how it engages with this particular organization.
India’s Shifting Global Priorities
India's foreign policy has increasingly shifted its focus toward the Indo-Pacific region, driven by a heightened awareness of China's expanding presence and influence in this strategically vital area. The Indo-Pacific is not only crucial for trade but also for regional security, making it a focal point for India’s diplomatic efforts.
This strategic pivot is exemplified by India’s active participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly known as the Quad. This initiative—comprising the United States, Japan, Australia, and India—centres on a range of critical issues including maritime security, economic cooperation, and initiatives to counterbalance China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Through the Quad, India seeks to enhance security collaborations and promote a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific.
Furthermore, India's involvement in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) underscores its intent to forge deeper economic ties and strategic partnerships within the region. IPEF represents a modern approach to economic integration and digital trade, involving countries that share mutual interests, diverging from organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which largely emphasizes collaboration in Eurasia.
As India continues to deepen its relations with ASEAN countries, the United States, and Japan, this eastward orientation is becoming increasingly pronounced. This reevaluation of alliances suggests that India's engagement with the SCO may be diminishing in significance as it prioritizes partnerships that directly address its security concerns and economic aspirations in the Indo-Pacific arena. In this evolving landscape, India aims to assert its presence as a key player and ensure stability in a region marked by both opportunity and challenges.
India’s Stance on Global Security
One of the pivotal elements of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO) agenda is the focus on regional security, with a particular emphasis on counterterrorism initiatives and the prevention of extremism. India, recognizing the persistent threat of terrorism, has been a strong advocate for collaborative strategies to combat this challenge within the region. The country continues to grapple with significant issues related to cross-border terrorism, particularly from Pakistan, which makes its involvement in the SCO crucial to aligning its security interests with regional partners.
Nevertheless, India’s approach to global security often contrasts sharply with that of its SCO counterparts, particularly concerning the situations in Afghanistan and the broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The Indian government has adopted a cautious and strategic outlook regarding Afghanistan, concerned about the potential influence and interests of both Pakistan and China in the area. This wariness is exacerbated by the potential for Afghanistan to become a hotbed for extremist ideologies that could threaten India's national security.
Moreover, India’s long-standing ties with Russia, a pivotal member of the SCO, add an additional layer of complexity to its engagement with the organization. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has tested these relationships, forcing India to navigate a delicate diplomatic landscape. While India has maintained a neutral stance, refraining from outright condemnation of Russian actions, its growing alignment with Western democracies in various international forums, such as the G20 and BRICS, underscores its efforts to balance diverse alliances. This intricate manoeuvring may contribute to India's comparatively lower level of engagement within the SCO framework, as it seeks to reaffirm its strategic interests while managing its relationships with both traditional allies and newer partnerships.
Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the SCO
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted various multilateral forums, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). As a prominent member of the SCO, Russia's active involvement in the conflict has not only raised tensions but also tested the cohesion of the organization. The situation places India, a country that has historically fostered strong relationships with Russia while simultaneously aspiring to deepen its ties with Western nations, in a particularly challenging diplomatic position.
India's stance of neutrality regarding the conflict reflects its delicate balancing act. While trying to preserve its longstanding connections with Russia, India is also eager to strengthen its partnerships with Western allies, particularly in light of geopolitical shifts. This nuanced position may compel India to navigate the complexities within the SCO with caution, as it seeks to avoid alienating either side.
Furthermore, India's careful approach to the Russia-Ukraine situation could be leading to a diminished influence within the SCO. As India increasingly prioritizes broader global engagements and diversifies its international relationships, it may find itself shifting focus away from the organization's immediate concerns. This realignment reflects not only India’s evolving foreign policy strategy but also indicates a potential redefinition of its role within regional organizations amid a changing global landscape.
SCO’s Economic Opportunities for India
Despite facing various challenges, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) presents a myriad of economic opportunities for India, especially in areas such as energy cooperation, trade enhancements, and regional connectivity. The SCO is instrumental in spearheading initiatives aimed at bolstering infrastructure across member states, which is particularly beneficial for India's trade relations with Central Asia—a region that is abundant in natural resources, including oil, natural gas, and various minerals.
India's strategic interests in this region are grounded in its commitment to ensuring regional stability, which is essential for energy security and the development of crucial transport corridors connecting Central Asia to India. Key projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) exemplify these efforts. The INSTC is designed to significantly reduce both the time and cost associated with transporting goods between India and Central Asia, as well as extending connections to Russia and Europe. By facilitating more efficient logistics, India aims to enhance its trade linkages and economic footprint in this resource-rich region.
However, while these economic incentives are undeniably significant, they come with certain caveats. India’s increasing inclination toward alternative global economic forums—where it perceives greater long-term potential—adds a layer of complexity to its engagement with the SCO. As India shifts its focus to participate more actively in global trade agreements and regional partnerships, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), the economic initiatives put forth by the SCO may struggle to maintain India’s full commitment. The evolving landscape of India’s foreign economic policy suggests that while the SCO continues to offer valuable opportunities, it must compete with an array of other global platforms that align more closely with India's strategic goals.
Is India Diversifying Away from the SCO?
The question of whether India is losing interest in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) warrants a closer examination, especially in light of its increasing engagement with various other global platforms. India's active participation in prominent international forums such as the G20 summits, BRICS meetings, and the Quad highlights its commitment to developing strong and strategic relationships with countries that align with its geopolitical priorities.
India's leadership role in the G20, particularly during discussions that address critical global issues ranging from climate change to economic stability, underscores its ambitions to position itself as a key player on the world stage. Similarly, India’s involvement in BRICS, which includes emerging economies like Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa, reflects its desire to engage in broader geopolitical dialogues that extend beyond the SCO's more regionally focused agenda. This engagement suggests that India is not only diversifying its strategic partnerships but is also keen on establishing itself as a pivotal force in shaping global governance.
Furthermore, India has been forging and strengthening defence partnerships with nations such as Japan and Australia. These collaborations indicate a strategic pivot towards alliances that resonate with India's security concerns and economic interests, especially in light of rising regional tensions. Such moves suggest that India’s global strategy is evolving in a manner that might eventually leave the SCO as a less central element in its foreign policy framework.
Despite this shift toward a broader array of global alliances, it is important to note that India has not entirely disengaged from the SCO. New Delhi still acknowledges the significance of the organization in addressing various regional security challenges, including concerns related to terrorism and trade issues, as well as in fostering economic cooperation with Central Asian countries. The SCO serves as a platform for dialogue and collaboration that aligns with some of India’s interests in stabilizing its immediate neighbourhood.
As we look to the future, a critical question emerges: Will India continue to prioritize its role within the SCO, leveraging its membership to address regional concerns, or will it increasingly favour participation in multilateral engagements that align more closely with its strategic vision? The answer to this question will have significant implications for India's foreign policy and its standing within both regional and global contexts.
Conclusion
As the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2024 approaches, there is a growing discourse surrounding India’s commitment to the organization. Since India became a member in 2017, it has played a crucial role in shaping the SCO’s initiatives. However, recent shifts in India’s global priorities have led to speculation about its future involvement. The nation has increasingly focused on the Indo-Pacific region, actively seeking to strengthen its bilateral relations with key partners, and participating in influential forums such as the Quad and G20. This shift suggests that India's engagement with the SCO may be diminishing.
Nevertheless, a complete withdrawal from the SCO seems unlikely. The organization serves as a pivotal platform for India to address significant regional security issues, foster economic cooperation, and maintain diplomatic ties with major players such as Russia, China, and the Central Asian republics. Given the complexities of regional geopolitics, India may opt to recalibrate its approach toward the SCO, engaging with it more selectively. This strategy would allow India to assert its global ambitions through alternative alliances while still leveraging the benefits that the SCO can offer.
The future trajectory of India’s interaction with the SCO will largely hinge on how well the organization aligns with India’s overarching geopolitical objectives. India will assess whether continued participation in the SCO can yield concrete benefits in an increasingly dynamic international landscape. As such, while India’s role within the SCO is likely to persist, it will be moulded by the need to juggle its global commitments with its regional interests, ensuring a balanced and strategic engagement in the years to come.
FAQs
1. What is the SCO and what does it do?
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a regional intergovernmental organization focusing on political, economic, and security cooperation among member states, including India, China, and Russia.
2. Why is India's participation in the SCO important?
India’s participation in the SCO allows it to engage with key regional players like China, Russia, and Central Asian countries, addressing important issues like regional security, counterterrorism, and economic cooperation.
3. Has India reduced its involvement in the SCO in recent years?
While India has remained a member of the SCO, its global priorities have shifted towards more strategic engagements in the Indo-Pacific, resulting in a reduced focus on the SCO.
4. What challenges does India face within the SCO?
India faces challenges within the SCO, particularly due to its border disputes with China and its long-standing tensions with Pakistan, both of which affect the depth of its cooperation.
5. How does India’s role in the SCO compare to other multilateral forums?
India is increasingly prioritizing other multilateral forums like the Quad, G20, and BRICS, where its strategic interests align more closely with global power dynamics.
6. What is the future of India’s engagement with the SCO?
While India may remain involved in the SCO, its focus is likely to shift towards other global platforms that better align with its evolving geopolitical and economic priorities.
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